From war-driven inflation to rising debt and market risks, JPMorgan’s CEO outlines what could shake the economy, and what it means for your wallet.

Another decent ISM activity print is consistent with the US economy growing at a 2.5% annual pace in 2026. The concern is that the jobs component dropped sharply in March and prices paid jumped, suggesting growing business caution in the wake of heightened economic and market angst tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

The US economy may be showing early signs of stagflation as services activity slows, inflation remains sticky at 3 per cent, and energy-driven price pressures rise amid the Iran conflict

TS Lombard sees either a recession, an inflation surge, or an economic re-acceleration coming from the Middle East supply chain damage.

Weaker growth and higher inflation expected

The labor market has been erratic to start 2026, creating over 100,000 jobs one month and then contracting the next. But Federal Reserve officials aren't alarmed, with one central banker suggesting zero job growth could still be considered healthy.

Michael Green, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, says that the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data does not account for the birth/death adjustment. He explains that the actual data is likely an inverse of what the job report showed.

Bruce Yandle When the Trump administration launched the war in Iran a month ago, higher oil and energy prices were surely expected, yet there was a positive feeling that the U.S. economy was strong and vibrant enough to keep running smoothly.