Russia’s central theory of the war may be starting to crack. For two years, Moscow’s strategy has been to absorb brutal losses, keep grinding forward and convince Ukraine and the West that time is on Russia’s side. But as of May 2026, the line has slipped below zero: Russia is no longer gaining ground on a net basis, it is losing it. That does not mean the war is over or that the Russian army is collapsing, but it does mean the map is no longer rewarding Russia’s attrition machine. What are you